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The Oxbow Partners Motor Market ModelTM forecasts a combined ratio for the market of 94% in 2024 increasing marginally to 95% in 2025

Using our proprietary Motor Market ModelTM, which combines market data and insight from several motor insurance providers, our Market Intelligence Unit has forecast market performance for 2024 and 2025.

Our proprietary UK Motor Market Model covers individual company data for 19 of the largest insurers in the market, controlling c£13bn of GEP in 2023, which we estimate to be around 90% of the total market. In addition to company results we have cross-referenced our inputs and built our hypotheses through use of external market data (e.g. ONS, ABI, SMMT) and multiple interviews with market participants.

We are expecting GEP growth of 16% in 2024 driven by 2023 written premiums earning through and 7% growth in GWP in 2024. As well as expense ratio to improve due to premium inflation and cost-cutting and market profit is set to reach £1.25bn - an almost five-fold increase over 2023.

In 2024 we expect the market to continue to increase written prices, slightly ahead of underlying claims inflation of 6%. Several key factors will impact this including the Supreme Court multi-injury judgement, whiplash tariffs and Ogden rate change.

Paul - Preferred 2-1

Paul De'Ath

Head of Market Intelligence

Paul is Head of Oxbow Partners Market Intelligence team, which helps insurance and reinsurance clients access insights into insurance markets around the world.

Paul has a broad understanding of markets, a deep understanding of many of the key European players, and strong analytical foundations, all gained during his decade working as an equity research analyst covering European insurance. He is also a qualified accountant and spent time in strategy and finance roles at Standard Life.

Paul is a regular commentator on UK personal lines and is often quoted in publications such as the Financial Times. He has authored a number of articles or Oxbow Partners and has built our fundamental model for the UK motor market. He regularly attends client executive and board meetings to share his perspectives

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About us

Oxbow Partners is a specialist management consultancy exclusively serving the insurance industry. Our clients include leadership teams at the world’s leading insurers, reinsurers, brokers and private equity firms.

Our consulting engagements span across strategy, operations, technology, transformation and M&A. Our Market Intelligence team offers unique analysis into the UK market and global reinsurance. Senior executives choose Oxbow Partners when they want a fresh perspective from a high-calibre team of industry specialists that thinks deeply about each client’s unique situation and has a track record of delivering insight and impact.

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