UKMMR23

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The Oxbow Partners Motor Market ModelTM forecasts a combined ratio for the market in 2023 of 106%, improving to 100% in 2024

It is fair to say that the last few years have been tumultuous for the UK motor insurance market. We have had COVID-induced frequency changes followed by one of the most significant regulatory changes in a generation and the highest level of inflation in 41 years.

Using our proprietary Motor Market ModelTM, which combines market data and insight from several motor insurance providers, our Market Intelligence Unit has forecast market performance for 2023 and 2024.

We forecast a combined ratio for the market in 2023 of 106%, improving to 100% in 2024. We expect GWP growth of 16%, mainly driven by price increases. Overall profitability will be better than 2022 but still 26% below pre-COVID levels.

 “If management teams believe that the end is in sight for ‘excess’ claims inflation then this is a good time to grow in UK motor, especially as some players are simply not equipped to take advantage. The question for many is whether the longer-term gain is worth risking shorter-term pain.”

Paul - Preferred 2-1

Paul De'Ath

Head of Market Intelligence

Paul is Head of Oxbow Partners Market Intelligence team, which helps insurance and reinsurance clients access insights into insurance markets around the world.

Paul has a broad understanding of markets, a deep understanding of many of the key European players, and strong analytical foundations, all gained during his decade working as an equity research analyst covering European insurance. He is also a qualified accountant and spent time in strategy and finance roles at Standard Life.

Paul is a regular commentator on UK personal lines and is often quoted in publications such as the Financial Times. He has authored a number of articles or Oxbow Partners and has built our fundamental model for the UK motor market. He regularly attends client executive and board meetings to share his perspectives

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About us

Oxbow Partners is a specialist management consultancy exclusively serving the insurance industry. Our clients include leadership teams at the world’s leading insurers, reinsurers, brokers and private equity firms.

Our consulting engagements span across strategy, operations, technology, transformation and M&A. We have also built cross-industry expertise in ESG across the insurance sector, with an in-depth understanding of the ESG strategy of (re)insurers across the globe. We are uniquely placed to use this expertise in our engagement with (re)insurers on their approach to ESG.

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   info@oxbowpartners.com

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